These are my thoughts, and you have no obligation to agree, but even if you disagree, they will still be my thoughts…
Once Brett Favre was on board, before this season started, I predicted a 12-4 record for the Minnesota Vikings, assuming no major injuries. They are currently 11-4, so a win vs. the Giants in the friendly confines of the Metrodome (I’m not saying Mall of America Field) would give them that record, and they have had some major injuries, which would put them ahead of what I would’ve expected.
Antoine Winfield’s foot issues have been huge, both due to all the games he missed, and while playing the past 2 weeks, when he clearly has been far below 100% (or even 70%). The loss of EJ Henderson has been very mentally painful to fans, while quite physically painful to him. The Arizona game was already decided when he was injured, but in the 3 games without Henderson, the team is 1-2. Plus there have been all of the week to week injuries, which are commonplace in the NFL, but exist nonetheless.
Everyone knows that injuries are a part of the game in football (or any sport for that matter), but I think these two injuries have made the defense much more vulnerable, and while I wouldn’t have predicted the offensive issues for 10 of the last 16 quarters, it will take adjusting to play w/o Henderson, and Winfield needs to figure out if he is hurting the team in 1-on-1 coverage if he is not healthy enough now. Pittsburgh Steelers are a great example of what can happen when a great defensive player is out. For the season, the Steelers are 8-7 and are one of a handful of AFC teams with a shot at one of the last 2 playoff spots. Troy Polamalu has only played in 4 full games this season (playing only the opening series vs. the Bengals before being injured again doesn’t really count). In those 4 games, the Steelers are 4-0, including the win over the Vikings. This makes them 4-7 without him. Talk about a huge impact on the team!
The Vikings have only had 5 games this season with both Antoine Winfield & EJ Henderson playing for the whole game. In those 5 games, the Vikings are 5-0. In all games with EJ Henderson, Vikings are 10-2, and in games with a healthy Antoine Winfield (last two weeks seemed to show he was not healthy, and he went out halfway through the Ravens win, after which QB Joe Flacco ripped through the MN pass defense & nearly led his team to a win), the Vikings are 6-0. So while teams need to adjust to injury losses, there are solid stats showing what that has done to the team.
That being said, EJ Henderson will not be returning this season, and with the looming possibility of no bye week in the playoffs, Antoine Winfield has no extra time coming up to heal, so if the Vikings want to make an impact in the postseason, they need to play around these injuries…and even if both were suddenly & magically healed, they don’t play on the offensive line or in special teams.
However, with all this gloom & doom, the Vikings are going to finish the season 12-4 or at worst, 11-5, which would be their best record since being 11-5 in 2000, or 15-1 in 1998. If they do beat the Giants and get that 12-4 record, the last time they had 4 or fewer losses other than 1998, was 1976 when they finished 11-2-1 (back when the seasons were still 14 games, before the switch to 16 in 1978). 12-4 would be their 2nd best record in the 32 seasons of a 16-game schedule, and 11-5 would be 2nd as well, but tied with 2000, 1992 & 1988. Everyone would love to be finishing the season on a higher note, but the 2nd best record in 32 years would be a solid accomplishment regardless.
The back-to-back division championships are something special for the Vikings too. ESPN analyst/former Super Bowl Winning Coach Jon Gruden pointed out before Monday Night Football that this was the first time the Vikings had pulled that off in over 30 years. They had that solid era in the 70’s, where they won the division each year from 1973-1978 (and they won 11 of 13 division titles from 1968-1980), but in modern history, that just hasn’t happened. Prior to last year’s NFC North title, their last one had been back in 2000, when they were still in the Central division, so even standalone titles had been rare lately.
While 3 of the last 4 weeks have been less than pretty on the field (minus the 2nd half of this Bears game…only the 1st half & OT were ugly), this is still a regular season that will go down as one of the best since the reign of the Purple People Eaters. I have only been able to enjoy that wining era through books, since it took place before I was born, up until I was starting preschool. Hence, I am going to try to look at this season as a whole, rather than just the last month. If the Vikings go on to the Super Bowl, no one will care how they did in December. On the other hand, if they had won all these December games & lost early in the playoffs, all the talk would be about why they didn’t rest their players. I’ll cross my fingers that these “learning experiences” will carry over to the post-season, as a reminder of what they need to do to win those games when it counts!
My hope for the weeks ahead, aside from the obvious wish for the Vikings to win any other games they play, includes the following things:
- A Cowboys win over the Eagles (along with the Vikings win), to get the Vikings that first round bye. The bye honestly doesn’t matter to me; in recent Super Bowls, it has not increased the odds of winning it all, but this team clearly plays better indoors, and that would guarantee starting off with a home game.
- If the Eagles win next week, and get the #2 spot, then I will be cheering for them to lose so Minnesota could avoid playing there. Preferable locations to play of the teams in the playoffs, in my opinion, in order (this is based on the location alone, not the team) – Dome, New Orleans, Dallas, Arizona, Green Bay & Philadelphia
- The defensive secondary covering the receivers like TMZ covers Tiger Woods’ other women.
- Offensive line playing a complete game, with pass protection & run blocking. Of course no game can ever be perfect, but if they protect for Favre, he’s shown repeatedly (and in the 2nd half vs. the Bears) that he will find open receivers. Plus, I couldn’t write about the Vikings without mentioning that Favre is 40 years old, so they need to keep him from being plowed onto his backside repeatedly; he is almost old enough to be at risk for breaking a hip with each fall. As for run blocking, look at what Adrian Peterson did vs. the Bears once he got past the line of scrimmage. It seemed like if he could get ½ yard, he was getting at least 6 yards.
- Peterson should go ahead & give up that one last yard in exchange for holding on to the ball (though a facemask call would’ve been nice, as the neck swiveling might make it harder to hold on), but I wouldn’t harp on that play too much. Sure, the Bears won the game after that, but a better hold by Kluwe on the extra point, a better punt by Kluwe early on, a catch by Berrian early in the 2nd half when the ball hit him on the hands, 1 or 2 interceptions by Ben Leber when the throw was to him (though 1 can be canceled out by the Bears dropped INT) or a tackle on multiple kick returns, would’ve eliminated the need for that OT altogether. AD drops the ball too often, but he also has that special explosive game that no one wants to take away, and sometimes that risk-taking & reward goes hand-in-hand. Go check out Walter Payton’s first 3 years in the league, and you just might discover that he fumbled even more often than Peterson. The point here though, is to make the plays that are right there for you. Hold the ball, catch the ball, turn the ball the right direction, kick the ball or hit the runner with the ball.
- Jared Allen and Kevin Williams’ (and Ray Edwards for that matter) pictures being removed from milk boxes. It seems like, in terms of a pass rush, that they have been non-existent. The Bears have had a shaky o-line this season, yet they looked Pro Bowl worthy for much of Monday night. That’s a problem, considering the talent that was lined up against them.
- Special Teams tackling. Defensive tackling.
- Brett Favre running the offense. No, I don’t think I’m a coach, and I don’t have a better plan than Childress does, but maybe Favre does…it seemed like in the 2nd half, when Favre was allowed to open up and play his style of game, things moved along much nicer in the offense. And this didn’t mean that the run was abandoned; it just worked better, as the pass opened it up more. Old school football knowledge says you run to open up the pass, but this season, when the Vikings have been successful, they’ve passed to open up the run.
That’s almost all for now; congratulations if you’ve managed to make it this far! One final head-scratching thought: if Brad Childress wanted to take a chance that if they lost, would’ve taken the heat off his team and moved it all to him, or could’ve made him a hero if they won, he could’ve gone for two after Sidney Rice’s TD catch with under 20 seconds left. If they were successful and came out with the win, the talk would’ve been about how gutsy he was, and what a tremendous comeback was led by #4. If they had failed, the talk would’ve been about what a dumb decision he made, and how it ruined the great comeback by #4, rather than focusing on all the other issues the Vikings had throughout the game. Just an interesting option to ponder after the fact…
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